“Meh”, Again

Here are a couple updated charts courtesy of Aswath Damodaran’s latest data:

201901_Impl_Stdy_PE
Data Source: Aswath Damodaran
201901_Impl_Stdy_vs_FWD_PE
Data Source: Aswath Damodaran

I’ve posted similar charts before. These are a bit different in that I switched them over to use an implied equity risk premium and cost of equity derived from discounted free cash flows instead of dividends. The result is some moderation in the steady state multiple. However, the general trends in the data hold.

My reaction to the broad US market’s valuation continues to be “meh.”

Near as I can tell, at these levels you’re being roundabout fairly compensated for owning US equity risk. Yes, a near-term recession would send the market lower. But I’m not a recession forecaster, and I don’t adjust asset allocation on the basis of near-term economic data reads. The lower equities go, the more attractive the forward returns will become.

That said, if you pick individual stocks there are most definitely pockets of opportunity out there. It’s a great time to go bargain hunting if you were prudent about taking off some risk in the last couple years. Cash can be used to play offense as well as defense.

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