2Q19 Fed Z1 data is out so I have updated my little S&P 500 expected returns model. The model and its origins have been discussed rather extensively here on the blog so I am not going to belabor its strengths and weaknesses going forward. From a long-term forward return perspective, the message remains: “meh.” As of June 30 it was predicting a 7.81% annualized return for the next decade.
It is interesting to note that the model disagrees with the dire prognostications of much of the investment world regarding forward-looking S&P 500 returns. Many shops out there are predicting low single digit or even negative returns over the next 7-10 years. These folks correctly called the tech bubble in the late 1990s but missed the post-crisis rebound. The model, meanwhile, caught both.
Given the output from the model, and the investment opportunity set more broadly, I’d bet with the model when setting expectations for the next 10 years.
What I think those shops are missing, and what the model captures, is the TINA Effect.
For many investors There Is No Alternative to owning equities.
Given that global interest rates remain very low, investors need to maintain high levels of equity exposure to hit their return hurdles. In the US, for whatever reason, the aggregate equity allocation typically bounces around in the 30% – 40% range. Unless something occurs to dramatically and permanently shift that range lower, I suspect forward returns will end up being a bit better than many people are predicting these days.
Not great. But not dire, either.